오데사에서 온 편지...

우크라이나 오데사에서 메일이 들어왔습니다. 오데사는 흑해에서 곡물, 식용유 등을 선적해서 수출하는 주요 항구입니다. 제게 메일을 보낸 사람은 오데사에서 곡물 선적 관련된 사업을 하고 있는 현지 브로커입니다.

현지의 상황을 될 수 있으면 그래도 전해 드리고 싶어서 제가 별도로 번역을 하지는 않겠습니다.

  

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Russian Federation made steep progress towards….national economical damage. The outflow of money is said to be between $27 and $35 billion dollars worth. Foreign firms withdraw from Russia, leaving thousands jobless. Indeed, Kremlin sells promises to feed them all with jobs (yes, Siberia is still the great place for new jobs!) ….but Kremlin’s also feeding expensive war against Ukraine, keeping military presence in Syria, holding the balance in Chechnya (Caucasus), making military dances in several African states and ….what’s most expensive, paying its’ own theft bill.

Apparently, this mighty Russian army was under-equipped, under-supplied with food and other resources. Under-trained! Even navy and air forces lack of …..fighting spirit and certain ammunition as facts show.

The story tells of those billions of dollars-worth programs to re-equip the army and to feed the separatists hub inside of Ukraine that was simply stolen by those tiny coordinators and army generals.

Imagine how it is now. Bureaucrats feel that the earth is trembling under their chairs and from one hand the fear of being imprisoned for bribing — should hole them off….but then the greed in front of the possible “last fishing”, gives them wings to only increase the “cost” for those who need special service and bribe for that reason.

And I suspect that a system built entirely on corruption in Russia, will resist against shrinking revenues and therefore the general population and the businesses would just become poorer.

 

History teaches that all major problems in Russia, start from small and victorious war (Crimean War of 19th century, Russian-Japanese war at the beg of 20th century, first World war….) and end up with massive revolts inland or/and efforts to process necessary reforms that end up with massive revolts later.

And I suspect that it is in hands of Kremlin heads and hands …to stop what they started and withdraw for until it’s too late. 

As we can see from our corner, the Russian army is fake. Big overpriced fake, poorly managed as they can’t even use their advantage in air and in the sea, at 50% of their capacity. If we draw the parallels ….the same can be applied to the Russian economy, which is the feeding ground for this corporate state.

Back to plantings: Indeed, if no solution is found over the month of March, the worries about spring planting of corn and sunflower seeds, will be boiling at higher temperatures and there is no doubt that uncertainty begets greater uncertainty, so warfare is the total uncertainty.

 

I don’t expect to see this war ends up nearly as fast as many have predicted ….one week from here yet ….(some say that plans of Kremlin were for 2–3 days only!). I think this one is for several months and depending from military activities at this stage, we can only look at facts and judge it “ad hoc”.

My own forecast is that this bloodshed is set to be completed (at least I try to use my imagination and think of what’s next important term for Kremlin’s strategists to be) prior start of Orthodox Easter, which falls by end of April this year.

By that period Ukraine will lose 60% of its’ GDP value and would exist generally by donations from the west, but the west is keen to keep Ukraine on money. By that period Russia may lose up to 10–15% of its’ GDP and up to 25–30% of arms they currently use to liberate Ukrainians (not to mention yet thousands of soldiers and officers) and there is a lack of resources for Russia of how to re-fill the cash deficit (for unless they sell Siberia to China as they once did with Alaska). 

Sure, the Russian army changes the tactics and shelled civilians now causing hundreds of deaths every day. But from time to time they aim to attack with tanks and armored cars and ground troops and …face the music.

 

Too, by that period, the Christian tradition sets the term for peace and love, family gathering, extensive praying in the churches, and remembering the dead. Unfortunately, there will be much more dead on both ends by end of April.

I’m sure that even in case Putin’s dogs cut Ukraine from the sea and accomplish the task aimed, at a certain percentage of the initial plan, the costs for Russia and Russian people will stay enormous and….and they will face here (in Ukraine) heavy partisan resistance, so all of their militaries and “new administrations” who remain at “new territories” will live with a sense of death treat every minute of their existence. And in case Kremlin goes that far to provoke NATO and to strike any of its’ convoys (military or humanitarian) to Ukraine, calling for direct confrontation with NATO (and this is what they are doing!) — the Russian army will acknowledge the hardest hit in history. And that might be the start of the Ragnarok.

Slava Ukraini! Glory to Ukraine!

Viktor Korobko & team of the VEA Brokers LLC.